Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Dean and Erin....Sepat!

Every 6 hours the models run and we watch and we wait. Today, the Hurricane Hunters will start recon on Dean, so the models should improve with field data input in the models. This is when things really start to get nerve racking for those of us living in a hurricane zone. The last 24 hours the models have been trending south with the storm working its way through the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica and the Yucatan. The National Hurricane Center has pretty much stated that they expect Dean to become a Major Hurricane in 72+ hours, so the situation will begin to get very serious for those in the path. There is an Upper Level Low this is diving down the East Coast at this time and looks to push Dean south. After that point, a more WNW and NW turn is possible. Putting Dean into the Gulf seems unthinkable for the people living in those areas after 2005, but it does seem to be a very real possibility as Dean works its way around that ULL. Of course this is still subject to change and the models will really be more valuable after Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is in the system. So we sit and wait and hope that this does not become an East Coast Hurricane.

This morning our 5th named Tropical Storm of the season was named in the Gulf of Mexico with Erin. Erin is a minimal Tropical Storm that is set to bring 5"-8" of rain to the Texas coast, where the ground is already saturated. This is a bad situation for these coastal residents as flooding looks to be very bad. Tropical Storm warnings went up this morning.

One final feature that everyone should take a look at is Sepat in the Western Pacific. This is a monster Typhoon with its sights set on Taiwan with 175kt Gusts! Look how tight the eye is on this Typhoon. I sure hope we don't see Dean reach this kind of strength. Sell those semi-conductor stocks today!



Dub said...


Dewdrop said...

Can you believe the models on Dean? Scary stuff. Any revised gut feelings? I am pretty sure we are right on our Gulf gut reaction... wait and see what recon suggests, I guess.