Our 4th Tropical Storm of the season has put the 2007 season at an above normal pace for storm activity this morning. Dean has been fighting off a fast forward speed and easterly shear, yet has still managed to make it to Tropical Storm status. Ahead Dean will find much more favorable conditions with lessening shear, warmer waters, and an Upper Level Low that will form over top of the system. All of these factors will allow Dean to reach Hurricane status in the next couple of days. Once Dean makes it into the Caribbean, the question will then become whether or not the Bermuda High will weaken and a trough will allow a northern turn or it keeps a blocking effect in place and continues to push it west. The models continue to fluctuate on this forecast. Neeless to say it is time to do any preperations ahead of the rush that will come when the media ties into this story as the weekend approaches.
In addtion to Dean we have 91L in the Gulf of Mexico, and it is looking better this morning. The forecast for this system is mainly going to be another soaking rain event for Texas, which they don't need. Two systems to track going into the weekend, sweet.