The past week of Katrina aftermath coverage has been pretty stunning. I'm going to try and avoid any politics or finger pointing discussions on this blog and just stick to the weather. It has been exactly one week since Katrina made landfall and the area off the SE Florida coast where Katrina formed is active once again. 94L.Invest has been starting to form a center of circulation at low levels. Miami radar clearly shows some rotation starting with this system over the very warm water of the Gulf Stream. Current wind shear analysis shows that conditions are looking favorable for this system to turn into a tropical depression. The forecast track is what really scares me about this storm. The GFDL and GFS currently show this system crossing Florida into the Gulf and heading toward the central Gulf Coast. How familiar would that be? Sounds cruel, but mother nature doesn't call timeout. The Gulf Coast residents need to be prepared and watch this system the next couple of days. Stay tuned as we will be tracking this system closely if it develops.
Dr. William Gray has put out his updated September and October 2005 forecast. If he is correct we are looking at 6 more hurricanes this year, 3 of which will be major hurricanes. Pretty scary.