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Friday, February 27, 2009
The March Blizzard?
As we go into the final weekend of February 2009, the weather situation for Southeastern Virginia is starting to looking very interesting for the next 84 hours. Once again, we are on the edge of either a major blizzard, soaking wet wind blown Noreaster', or of course not much at all. Keep checking back as this situation develops this weekend. I'll be here hoping for one last chance at a big snow storm!
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LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL VERY CHALLENGING FCST IN THE SUN NIGHT AND MON TIME FRAME.
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER/FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW...NOW BEING ON THE NORTH END OF ALL GDNC. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AND HAVE GNLY MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SUN NGT/MON BUT STILL CAPPING CHANCES AT 50%.
ON MONDAY...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SOLNS YIELDS PTYPE AS SNOW
FOR ALL OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT IN A MIX W/ RAIN ALONG THE SE VA/NC
COAST THRU MIDDAY MON UNTIL LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE NNW....THEN
FCST HAS NOTHING BUT SNOW AS PTYPE ALL ZONES. EXACT TRACK WILL
DETERMINE DIFFERENCE BETWN A HVY SNOW EVENT VS NOTHING (ALL PRECIP
OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH AS W/ PREV SYSTEMS THIS WINTER). ONE
POSITIVE FOR SNOW ENTHUSIASTS IS THAT SEVERAL PAST LA NINA WINTERS
OVER THE MID ATLC/CAROLINAS HAVE HAD LITTLE OR SNOW THROUGH MOST
OF THE SEASON ONLY TO RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT STORM LATE IN THE
SEASON (FEB/MAR). TIME WILL TELL.
AS THIS IS AN UPPER LOW CUTOFF...THE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS NO REAL ARCTIC
AIR BEHIND IT AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
40S ON TUE AND U40S TO 50S WED AND THU. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TUE MORNING AND U20S TO 30S WED AND THU MORNING.
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