Wednesday, June 04, 2008

More Moderate Risk!

Can I chase today? NO!!! At least not before 6pm EST.



...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...S OF STNRY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM CNTRL PA TO NEAR NYC.
FARTHER S...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ATTM
EXTENDS FROM N OF CRW ESE TO N OF RIC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WV/VA/MD AND DE.
GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG...WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

UPSTREAM...MCV NOW OVER SRN IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT ABOUT 40
KTS...REACHING NRN WV AROUND 18Z. COMBINATION OF MCV-INDUCED
ASCENT...AND UPLIFT ALONG FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS
HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY.

WIND PROFILES WILL FEATURE 40+ KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
FLOW...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...THE MAIN OVERALL
ORGANIZATIONAL MODE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
LINES. EMBEDDED STORMS COULD YIELD DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE/WEAKENS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF WEAKER
STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER NRN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.
 
SCM

1 comment:

wxman said...

This was the one I've been watching a couple a days ago..I thought that there will be an outbreak possible last Thursday and today..but it was just a bust..After SPC update downgraded the MOd to slight risk..Well hope this weekend will be a hit one..