Thursday, July 21, 2005

And The Streak Continues...

Starting on July 5th, 2005 we had Tropical Storm Cindy in the Atlantic basin and the current streak of consecutive days of tropical activity began. Without a storm forming today, that streak would have ended. Nevermind, this is 2005 and Tropical Depression 6 (soon to be Franklin) has come along at 5pm EST and officially saved the day. That makes 17 consecutive days of activity in the Atlantic Basin for July 2005 and our 6th named storm of the season.

The current forecast track for TD6 looks an awful lot like Hurricane Jeanne, which held Florida hostage for days before making its move and descending on the coast. Are we looking at a similar situation with TD6? Here is the 5pm EST official forecast track from the NHC.

Only time will tell, but the contributing factors on where TD6 will go will be a trough moving across the Midwest, how strong it is, and the classic and persistent Bermuda High building back in from the East. If that trough is not strong enough to pick up TD6 and take it out to sea, the storm may stall as forecast. At that point the Bermuda High may build back in and push it West or WSW back into southern Florida and the Keys mid week. In the meantime, it will hang around off the coast and create some great surf all the way up the East Coast while holding Florida hostage.

We are still watching the system off the east coast of Central America. No surface low has formed yet, but it is possible and could be a problem next week in the Gulf of Mexico. We could have TD7 by tomorrow and our 7th name storm of the season already. 1935 anyone?

*Note - This post is not done by a professional Meteorologist and should not be used for making decisions on safety and protection of property. Always use your local National Weather Service station or the National Hurricane Center for up to date weather information and data.*

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