Thursday, May 29, 2008

Persistent GFS Model....

Tropical Depression 01 has officially formed in the Eastern Pacific this morning. The GFS Model and others have persistently showed this system moving across central America and into the Caribbean. After it crosses over this area of Central America, the models show this storm cranking up into the first Tropical Storm in the Atlantic. There are many eyes on this thing. Below are the comments from the Wilmington, NC office.

THE GFS HAS BEEN LIKING TROPICAL DEVEL IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. MOST OF US HAVE THOUGHT IT `GOT THE MEMO` ABOUT

HURRICANE SEASON BEGINNING AND THAT IT WAS GETTING AN EARLY START AT
CRANKING OUT ITS SEEMINGLY OBLIGATORY STORM BEYOND DAY 4.
HOWEVER...A CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED (IN THE ERN PACIFIC) AND BEEN

CROWNED TD ONE-E BY THE NHC WITH A FCST TRACK TO THE NNW. IF THIS
SYSTEM SURVIVES THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN IT MAY NOT BE
VERY FAR INTO HURRICANE SEASON BEFORE THE FIRST ATLANTIC TD IS NAMED

AND THE GFS WILL DESERVE A PAY RAISE. AS DISORGANIZED AS ONE-E IS
CURRENTLY THIS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT BUT CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE.


Here is a view of the GFS Model Run, check out south of Cuba!

One more interesting picture that may forbode a very interesting 2008 Hurricane Season. Everyone remembers the records that were smashed in 2005 for storm activity. Sea Surface Temperatures in 2005 were at record levels and helped fuel some of the strongest hurricanes in recent history. Well, check out this map showing the 2005 vs. 2008 current SST's.

2005 SST's

2008 SST's

Hold onto you seat and make sure you prepare for this years Hurricane season if you are anywhere near the coastline. Here in Virginia we are in the middle of the Hurricane Preparedness Tax Holiday. Take advantage of the tax free status and get your supplies now!

SCM




2 comments:

Dewdrop said...

Oh my... great write up, Mike. Looks like the official track of, now Tropical Storm Alma, has it tracking through some rough terrain... might not make it into our neck of the woods, but those SSTs are outrageous... this could get really bad.

Mike said...

I've been watching the GFS show this thing for about 10 days now at least