Sunday, May 11, 2008

Meso Discussion Open Up Possibilities This Evening...


 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...THE CAROLINAS INTO SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111739Z - 111945Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA. AND...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A DEEPENING LOW
CENTER WILL TRACK FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
RALEIGH BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z...AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 90-100 KT 500
MB JET STREAK NOSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD
SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. BUT...THIS MAY CHANGE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS
NORTHWARD...EAST NORTHEAST OF SURFACE CYCLONE. BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER ARE ALREADY ALLOWING INCREASING INSOLATION ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE.

DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED SEVERE
THREAT COULD INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER AS EARLY AS THE
18-20Z TIME FRAME. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG AND STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
AND...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..KERR.. 05/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

34858128 35588038 36507933 37267887 37247742 37037675
36067623 35027652 33707857 33658093

1 comment:

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