Thursday, April 12, 2007

Record Breaking Nor'easter?

Model runs are now starting to come to a concensus that a major cyclogensis is coming this weekend for the East Coast. We are watching the model runs closely and we will be heading towards the Virginia coast tonight with our cameras. The following text is from the New York City forecast discussion. Amazing if this actually plays out.

NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN THE SHORT TERM AND THEN TRACK EAST AND TRY TO PHASE WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND - SORT OF A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A 2 TO 3 SIGMA ANOMALY IN THE 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 WIND FIELDS DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SUBJECTIVELY APPEARS SOUTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS RESULTS FOR A MORE PROLONGED NORTHEAST COMPONENT FOR OUR REGION...WHICH IS NOT GOOD.

WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW HPC/S GUIDANCE ON THIS. PLEASE SEE HPC/S EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION (PMDEPD).

THE BOTTOM LINE: A SIGNIFICANT...POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM...FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT WE ARE ENTERING A SPRING TIDE SITUATION WITH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MONDAY NIGHT NEEDING ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET OF SURGE TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WITH A SLOW MOVING STORM...TIDAL PILING COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION NOT SEEN IN MANY YEARS.

12Z GFS RUN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS! LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ISLAND IS NEAR 80 KNOTS. WHILE IT/S VERY EARLY AND THINGS WILL CHANGE...WE NEED TO BE VIGILANT ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AND START PLANNING. WE DO NOT WANT TO SAY THAT THE SKY IS FALLING...BUT THERE POTENTIAL HERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT EVENT DUE TO THE SPRING TIDES...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS

SCM

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