Sunday, November 13, 2005

Turkey and a Hurricane?

After a bit of a break from blogging, I'm back and so are the tropics. On Halloween I said it looked like we would be in for a lull in tropical activity for about 14 days due to a deep trough that was dug in off the SE coast. Well here we are on day 14 and sure enough we have two tropical systems in the East Caribbean. 93L.Invest and 94L.Invest have been stirring things up and we could have action over the Thanksgiving Holiday. Imagine that, turkey and some 128kt winds. Only in 2005, right? Well, 94L.Invest has measured in with 33mph winds over the St. Lucia island and a special weather statement has been issued by the Tropical Prediction Center at 8pm EST tonight. I believe we could have tropical depression "Gamma" by tomorrow. The models show this system moving WNW at 10mph into the Carribbean Sea. From there it will need to be watch as the models diverge by quite a bit. One thing that is concerning is that the GFDL now shows this hurricane really cranking up to 128kt winds south of Jamaica. A category 4 hurricane in the middle of November just shows how warm the waters have been this season. A hurricane season that starts early in June is probably very likely to run late into November and December as well. Deep warm ocean water is the source of these storms, and there is still plenty of it out there. Keep checking back in as I will be tracking this late season storm closely.

On a side note it is tornado season and it has already been deadly this fall. This video of a tornado in Iowa is amazing!

SCM

1 comment:

scootercookies said...

HI! Glad to have you back! I checked out odds of hurricanes hitting Tampa Bay this late in the season and small hurricanes are unlikely, and (knock on wood) large hurricanes (3 and higher) are unheard of. We'll be watching, just in case!