Storm Chasing Mikey

Severe Thunderstorm with 70mph Winds in Norfolk, Va

2011-12-08T09:04:00.004-05:00

Check out this Video I shot as a cold front moved into Norfolk, Va on December 7th, 2011 around 8:45pm est. The storm was severe warned and this video shows how strong the winds were. There was a basketball hoop on the road by my truck. When the storm line hit it picked the basketball hoop up in the air and slammed into the road about 20 ft behind my truck! There was tree damage throughout the area.

SCM

Foreman Field Lightning

2011-05-23T22:35:00.001-04:00

I have been waiting for an opportunity to get a shot like this over the Foreman Field Stadium at Old Dominion University for a while now. After a severe cell moved over Norfolk, the lightning really picked up on the back side of the storm. This was the best shot of the night. I was able to get about 9 lightning strikes over the stadium in total.

SCM

Wall Cloud Photos

2011-05-23T22:02:00.006-04:00

On May 18th there was a report of a funnel cloud in a strong cell over Newport News, Va. I headed down to my normal spot along the Elizabeth River and got these photos of the storm and wall cloud.

SCM

Tuscaloosa Tornado - Unedited Raw Version - 4/27/11

2011-04-29T21:02:00.000-04:00

The below video was shot by Mike Wilhelm of bamawx.com. Mike is a professional storm chaser, who unfortunately had to witness one of the most devastating Tornado's in US history make a direct hit on place he loves so much....the video is very dramatic.

SCM

PDS Issued for Eastern NC

2011-04-16T12:31:00.002-04:00

A Particularly Dangerous Situation and High Risk has just been issued for Eastern North Carolina. Risk for Long Track Tornadoes is increasing. Will be heading out to chase here in about an hour. You can view my live cam on UStream at userid: vachaser.

SCM

December 2010 Snow Bomb - Norfolk, Va on Vimeo by Mike Shumate

2010-12-29T15:31:00.001-05:00

December 2010 Snow Bomb - Norfolk, Va on Vimeo by Mike Shumate, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Quick video showing the conditions here in Norfolk, Va during the height of the December 26, 2010 Snow Bomb.

Snow Bomb 2010

2010-12-27T16:11:00.001-05:00

Snow Bomb 2010, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Photo taken of a Pine covered in snow on December 26, 2010 during the 3rd largest snowfall in Norfolk, Va history. 14" of snow fell here in Larchmont. This tree is in Virginia Park.

Lightning over the Norfolk Yacht and Country Club

2010-10-27T23:25:00.001-04:00

Lightning over the Norfolk Yacht and Country Club, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

This is the another great Lightning image I captured on October 27, 2010 of a rotating supercell as it moves over Newport News, Va around 10:10pm est.

Rotating Supercell

2010-10-27T23:23:00.001-04:00

Rotating Supercell, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

This photograph was taken over the Lafayette River as a rotating supercell moved over the cities of Newport News and Hampton, Va around 10:10pm EST October 27,2010. I have a perfect view once the clouds from the base cleared out. This was shot with my Nikon D90 and 12-24mm Tokina Lens on a tripod.

The Storms and Rocks

2010-10-25T19:57:00.001-04:00

The Storms and Rocks, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

HDR Image of a Shelf Cloud over the Elizabeth River this afternoon.

Funnel Cloud Video - Sept 30, 2010

2010-09-30T12:55:00.000-04:00

Good Morning Earl

2010-09-02T23:01:00.001-04:00

Good Morning Earl, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Sunrise in Corolla, NC the morning of Hurricane Earl's arrival in Hatteras.

Shelf Cloud over Old Dominion University

2010-06-29T22:52:00.001-04:00

Shelf Cloud over Old Dominion University, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Memorial Day

2010-05-31T22:21:00.001-04:00

Memorial Day (Hipstamatic Contest Entry), originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Storm or Volcano?

2010-04-23T13:29:00.003-04:00

These images are absolutely amazing from Iceland. First chance for severe weather is this Sunday. I'll be out if it is after Church service.

Check back this weekend, hopefully 2010 will get rolling soon. Not one strike of Thunder yet this year.

SCM

Enjoying a Rare Snowfall in Virginia

2010-01-31T14:05:00.003-05:00

We found some Hills at the Local Golf Course to use as a sled park.

SCM

Historic Snow Storm in Virginia Live

2010-01-30T08:14:00.001-05:00

Amazing Video of the Chesapeake Bay during the Nor'easter

2009-11-19T13:32:00.002-05:00

Here is some amazing video by Jesse Bass showing just how angry the Chesapeake Bay can become during a Historic Nor'easter!

SCM

The Ghost of Ida - Historic Flooding in Norfolk, Va

2009-11-19T13:28:00.003-05:00

Here is video I shot of the Ghost of Ida in what became an Historic Nor'easter for Tidewater Virginia.

SCM

Where the Minnows Live

2009-05-17T14:45:00.001-04:00

Where the Minnows Live, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

May 9, 2009 - Lightning

2009-05-10T11:22:00.004-04:00

Not a great lightning event as the storm completely dissipated as it made its way to my location. Here is what I got.

SCM

May 7, 2009 Elizabeth River Supercell

2009-05-07T22:17:00.007-04:00

An amazing storm this evening. What more can I say that these images don't? Severe warned to my south, I had an amazing view.

Incredible HD Video from this storm will be up when YouTube is done processing.

SCM

May 6, 2009 Severe Storm Chase Video

2009-05-07T14:34:00.001-04:00

Enjoy.

SCM

May 6, 2009 Chase Photographs

2009-05-06T22:24:00.004-04:00

The frontal boundary that has been draped across Central North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia remained in place today. I chased 5 different cells looking for rotation, but no luck. The storms had some amazing structure. Here are a few images. HD Video tomorrow. All of these images were shot on my tripod with HDR on my Nikon.

SCM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - May 4th, 2009

2009-05-04T21:36:00.007-04:00

Finally got a chance to chase today and nailed the Hail Core. Here are images and HD Video will be up next.

SCM

Cloud to Cloud

2009-04-20T21:22:00.002-04:00

SCM

Tornado Watch Issued.

2009-04-06T08:08:00.001-04:00

Tornado Watch has been issued.

- Update -

I was go able to get out for about an hour this morning. A tornado touched down in Newport News. A few miles further south and I would of caught this funnel on video.

SCM

Tornado in Carolina

2009-03-27T19:03:00.006-04:00

Here is video of a tornado just off I95 in Cumberland County, NC today. This is the beginning of a 3 day major severe storm outbreak across the Southeast. I sure hope everyone has their weather band enabled radio's ON and ready to go. It should move the Southeast Virginia during the over night hours on Saturday/Sunday. Nothing like severe weather in the middle of the night!

SCM

The March Blizzard?

2009-02-27T12:28:00.005-05:00

As we go into the final weekend of February 2009, the weather situation for Southeastern Virginia is starting to looking very interesting for the next 84 hours. Once again, we are on the edge of either a major blizzard, soaking wet wind blown Noreaster', or of course not much at all. Keep checking back as this situation develops this weekend. I'll be here hoping for one last chance at a big snow storm!

SCM

Major Bust...

2009-01-20T12:43:00.001-05:00

We hardly had a flake of snow today as the dry air moved in and evaporated all precipitation well before reaching the ground......See you in the Spring!

SCM

So Far, No Snow....

2009-01-20T09:59:00.003-05:00

School is shut down and it has not even started to snow yet......The airmass is very dry so any snow is going to have a very hard time making it to the ground today. Looks like a trace of snow is most likely at this point. Not a lot of happy parents out there right now. I have the HD Video and Nikon ready if we do get anything. Not holding my breath at this point.

SCM

Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

2009-01-19T20:21:00.003-05:00

SCM

Winter Storm Watch Issued

2009-01-19T09:04:00.002-05:00

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through Tuesday
evening...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from late tonight through
Tuesday evening.

Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley this morning will move to
the southern Appalachians today... then redevelop off the southeast
coast tonight. Snow... or rain and snow mixed will develop after
midnight over southeast Virginia and northeast North
Carolina... then change to all snow and become heavy at times
during the day Tuesday. The snow will taper off to flurries
Tuesday evening. Total snow accumulations in the watch area are
expected to range from 2 to 5 inches... with locally higher amounts
possible.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

SCM

Lewes-Cape May Ferry

2009-01-07T07:29:00.003-05:00

Here is a short video as I rode the ferry across to Cape May in 20-25mph winds and a cold rain Tuesday.

SCM

Amazing Photos

2008-12-01T09:59:00.003-05:00

I had to post these images from today's dailymail.

No active weather up this way.....

SCM

Snow in Norfolk, Va

2008-11-21T08:59:00.002-05:00

We had a pretty snow shower here in Norfolk, Va this morning. Too warm to stick, but it was nice to watch out the window with a cup of coffee.

SCM

Slight Risk Saturday?

2008-11-14T10:07:00.006-05:00

Say it isn't so. If anything does develop tomorrow, you can bet I'll be in front of it. We haven't had a storm in months!

...CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION...    SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY IN LINEAR MODES    -- ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION...BEGINNING    EARLY IN PERIOD AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MORNING/AFTERNOON PRIOR TO    FROPA.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH FCST LOW-LEVEL    SHEAR PROFILES INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR EITHER SUPERCELLULAR OR QLCS    RELATED TORNADOES IN A FEW LOCALES AS WELL.  SVR PROBABILITIES    THEREFORE ARE BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL CRITERIA.  RELATIVELY    DENSE CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTIVE WIND EVENTS...IN PARTICULAR...IS    POSSIBLE WITHIN BROADER AREA OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK NOW    DRAWN...AND UPGRADE TO PROBABILITIES WITHIN THIS AREA MAY BE NEEDED    IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS ONCE MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

Update:  Please check out this inspirational post by Dewdrop!  Great job Dew!

SCM

Hazardous Weather Outlook

2008-10-25T09:04:00.000-04:00

First time in months! We'll see how things develop today.

727 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT IN ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE. AN ISOLOATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Huntington Beach Pier

2008-09-26T14:41:00.001-04:00

Huntington Beach Pier, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

I did miss the Nor'easter here this week in Virginia. I enjoyed a much nicer weather pattern in Huntington Beach California. Here is my Sunset from one evening taken with my Nikon 50mm Lens.

SCM

Arlington Memorial Bridge

2008-09-18T21:07:00.002-04:00

SCM

Ike Reality Setting In

2008-09-18T08:52:00.003-04:00

This article has a lot of reality in it when it comes to the search for those stubborn individuals who stayed in Galveston for Ike. I have no idea how high the death toll will go, but I do know it is a lot higher than the 49 the government is reporting today. Very sad situation for the family members searching for those who stayed for this massive storm surge. There is a wave in the mid-caribbean that we might have to keep an eye on if it can develop an LLC.

SCM

Ike in Pictures

2008-09-15T22:10:00.002-04:00

This pictorial of the Ike Aftermath is just incredible.

SCM

Before and After

2008-09-15T19:55:00.003-04:00

Some said that NOAA over warned with the "certain death"comment before Ike. Check these photos of Galveston before and after Ike.

This is from Dr. Masters' blog.

"According to the New York Times, one Bolivar Peninsula resident was washed all the way across across Galveston Bay to the mainland after the storm surge destroyed his house and threw him into the water. A helicopter picked him up. So far, there are three confirmed deaths on the peninsula, from the town of Port Bolivar. The peninsula had a population of 3,800, of which 500 did not evacuate. As many as 90 people were rescued from the peninsula in the hours leading up to the storm, but at least 400 people remained. Most of these people are as yet unaccounted for. According to news reports, 80% of the buildings on the peninsula were destroyed."

Yes, Ike was Historic. This story will be developing for weeks to come.

SCM

Ike Will Make History

2008-09-12T21:56:00.004-04:00

This is what between 11,000 and 24,000 people decided to try and ride out on Galveston Island tonight. How ironic that people who live on the water have so little respect for it. A 20ft surge will peak around 2am EST tomorrow morning in the dark on the island.

SCM

Remember

2008-09-11T14:19:00.001-04:00

Nikon HDR DC 2, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

I took this in DC the other day, no storms.

9-11.

SCM

Ike - The Next Historic Disaster

2008-09-11T10:28:00.003-04:00

I haven't posted about Hurricanes not affecting my area as much as I used to because quite frankly I don't have the time and there are so many other places to read this information that I kind of stopped the blog from being about daily hurricane updates. However today I have to post about what I think is going to happen on the Texas coast in the next 48 hours. When Katrina was approaching New Orleans and Gulfport, you could sense that the Emergency Management officials were dropping the ball big time and people were going to die. So here we are 3 years later and the same thing is happening in the Houston Metro area. Instead of evacuating the Metro area from what could be a historic surge and Category 4 hurricane from hitting the area, they want to keep the roads clear!!!! Shelter in place!!! No shelters will be open!! This is absolutely amazing. The pressure on Ike has been below 950mb for over 12 hours. The storm has been going through a eyewall replacement cycle and once the concentric eyewalls reorganize into one massive eye, we will see the winds catch up to the pressure drop. I have been watching the KHOU stream all morning, and the folks are still waiting and watching to see what they are going to do. I hate to make predictions like this, but in the end this is going to be a historic event. Hardly anyone has left the area, they have less than 48 hours to go and it is too late for people to get out. I hope I'm wrong, but this is going to be a very bad event and people are going to die. You would think we would learn our lessons, but apparently not. I guess evacuations are just too costly and inconvenient. God help those in this storm if it is a Cat 4 getting stronger at landfall, which is possible.

SCM

Severe Threat Tomorrow

2008-09-08T14:54:00.005-04:00

Tomorrow I will be in Downtown Washington DC. If the severe threat holds off until after 1pm EST, then I will have the chance to do some photography around the National Monuments with severe weather looming. This is something I have always wanted to do. Lightning strikes or a nice shelf cloud around the Jefferson Memorial or Washington Monument would be nice. I'll have my stuff with me ready to go for more severe weather coverage.

SCM

Tropical Storm Hanna Video

2008-09-06T15:50:00.002-04:00

SCM

Tropical Storm Hanna Photographs

2008-09-06T14:06:00.003-04:00

See all of my images from Hanna today here. I will be posting my video later this evening. Hanna was a weak tropical storm in the Norfolk, Va area, but she was very picturesque. No rain with an awesome storm line and a little sun light made for a great chance at taking some storm photography. I hope you like them. The storm clouds were right there off the beach and required my ultra wide angle lens to capture them in the frame. They were really screaming by to the North. Here are a couple.

SCM

Hanna Here?

2008-09-06T08:03:00.004-04:00

Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall just North of Myrtle Beach at 3:20am this morning. The rain field on the eastern side of the storm is pretty vacant with all the heavy rain to the North and West of the storm, just as NOAA forecasted. The winds here are very light. The core of the storm should move by to our West in about 2-3 hours. I am going to head out shortly to shoot some video, but there really isn't much to see. Pretty tame storm. We are still under a Tornado Watch, so we could get a water spout to spin up. I'll go to Willoughby Spit Beach and see if I can catch anything.

SCM

5pm Update: Tornado Watch - Eyewall to Move Over Norfolk, Va

2008-09-05T16:48:00.002-04:00

At 5pm the track has shifted back East and the eyewall is now forecast to move directly over Norfolk, Va. At Tornado Watch has also just been issued. It is going to get very interesting here over the next 12 hours.

SCM

Hanna's Rains Are Here...

2008-09-05T15:24:00.004-04:00

Hanna's first outer storm bands started moving through around 2:30pm EST today. I sure hope we don't get too much rain before the heavy winds get here, but we do need it desperately!

The Live Cam is still up....I will be moving it to a better location to show any surge from the Elizabeth River up towards my house tomorrow morning. I sure am glad Hanna has a firm area of dry air wrapped around its southern and eastern sides. If not we could have a very serious problem up here in Norfolk, Va.

SCM

Home From Gulfport, Awaiting Hanna

2008-09-04T21:13:00.005-04:00

Here I am in Norfolk, Va awaiting the arrival of Hanna and her Tropical Storm force winds. We are still waiting to see if we get the eastern or western side of the storm as it moves through Southeaster Virginia. The storm track seems to have shifted a bit west this morning and convection definitely looks better than it did 24 hours ago. I still don't see this as being a huge event in my area, but the winds will be brisk and should be fun for a weather enthusiast like myself. Not to mention, today is my birthday and it's always nice to have Mother Nature send me a little gift. The latest track does show us receiving some good winds sometime tomorrow morning/afternoon. There doesn't look to be any shear as the storm moves through my area, so the Tornado risk should be low if we get the eastern side of the storm. However, the friction of the storm cells as they move over land could definitely spin up some weak F1 tornados. I have put up a live cam facing east from the 2nd floor of my house so you can see the tropical moisture and winds move into the area the next 24 hours. I will be providing my usual video and photography coverage of Hanna as it moves closer so keep checking back.

I just got back from Gulfport, MS where I was visiting a client who was severely impacted by Katrina and just had a brush with Gustav. It was my first trip to the Gulf Coast, so we took I90 along the beach to see some of the Katrina and Gustav damage first hand. It really is amazing to see the damage in person. It is just staggering to think about the size of that storm surge and what it must of been like to live through it. I heard several amazing stories. The trees still have that classic mangled look to them. It's as if a 20 mile wide tornado went through the area and just left nothing in its wake. As I watch Ike making its move towards South Florida or the East Coast, I sure hope we don't see something like this again. It is starting to look more and more likely for whoever is in Ike's path.

Keep checking back as Hanna gets closer. The blog is officially active on storm watch.

SCM

Sunset As The Storm Rolls In HDR

2008-08-31T23:15:00.001-04:00

Sunset As The Storm Rolls In HDR, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

As I watched the news about Gustav on the TV, a storm rolled in for my final sunset on my vacation on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

SCM

Buck Island Sunrise

2008-08-29T21:06:00.001-04:00

Buck Island Sunrise - HDR, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Photo of a gorgeous Sunrise we had the other day while some cumulous clouds from Fay were shooting by us along the coast.

SCM

Corolla Beach Thunderhead

2008-08-29T21:03:00.001-04:00

Corolla Beach Thunderhead in HDR, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Here is a picture I took this morning of a thunderhead that was off shore.

SCM

Corolla, NC Sunset

2008-08-25T13:32:00.001-04:00

Corolla, NC Sunset, originally uploaded by Ras Mikey.

Here is the sunset last night here in Corolla, NC. Bracketed HDR Image from my Nikon D50 and Tokina Ultra Wide Angle Lens.

Storms in Downtown Norfolk

2008-08-15T22:11:00.007-04:00

The worst part of this storm cell actually moved due North of downtown Norfolk, which gave me a nice rain free view of the storm itself. I didn't have my Nikon with me today, but my cell phone pics came out okay. I'll definitely come back to this spot with my tripod and video camera next time a storm sets up near this location. A great view.

SCM

Supercell - Anvil

2008-07-30T21:17:00.007-04:00

Tonight we had a storm really blossom around sunset over the middle peninsula. This storm is about 10 miles to my Northeast. The Anvil was shooting right over top of me as the sun was setting. An awesome site.

SCM

Scud Clouds in Amelia Island

2008-07-24T21:47:00.002-04:00

SCM

Severe Storm in Amelia Island

2008-07-22T16:37:00.003-04:00

I just took these pictures here from our hotel balcony in Amelia Island! The severe storm warning was going crazy on the TV. Of course, I had to pull the camera out and capture some pictures. Here are a few! I have some video I'll load later.

SCM

No Friction

2008-07-09T21:29:00.003-04:00

The only thing lacking from my chance to photograph the storms tonight was the lightning! Oh well, we always have tomorrow. We did see a great shelf cloud, but it was too dark to capture it on video. Here is a picture of one cool cloud that came right over us before the rain hit. There just wasn't enough heating today in southeastern Virginia to get the light show I wanted.

SCM

Round 2 Tonight

2008-07-09T19:32:00.002-04:00

We have a wicked incoming storm line on its way with 46,000 ft tops. I'll be heading out in a few minutes.

SCM

July 8th Severe Storms - Video

2008-07-09T00:17:00.001-04:00

SCM

July 8th Severe Storms - Photography

2008-07-08T22:50:00.006-04:00

Below are some of my photographs from the Severe Storms here in Southeastern Virginia today. I will be posting the video later tonight.

We are in the slight risk box again tomorrow!

SCM

Incoming Storm Line

2008-07-08T15:49:00.002-04:00

SCM

Severe Storm Watch Until 9pm EST

2008-07-08T13:15:00.005-04:00

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN VA/ERN HALF OF NC/NERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081634Z - 081800Z

MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MD AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEGREE OF
SHEAR COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
THAT MULTICELL STORMS -- AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY-GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 07/08/2008

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35837944 36727919 38097966 38807835 37917533 36827595
35457542 34607651 33627879 34598076

Photographic Bertha!

2008-07-07T16:07:00.003-04:00

Wow! Bertha has my attention for sure. Intensity forecast continue to be a major problem and once again we have a storm that rapidly intensifies under less than favorable circumstances. Just amazing.

SCM

92L In The Atlantic

2008-07-01T10:18:00.004-04:00

We have our first large Cape Verde Wave coming off the coast of Africa and it is generating attention at the NHC this morning.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS


SCM

Incoming Cells

2008-06-29T20:24:00.004-04:00

Pretty much the entire east coast is under a severe thunderstorm watch. I hope to get some lightning photography over the river tonight. Smoke from the dismal swamp fires and a battle with bronchitis has had the blog inactive, but we get back in action tonight.

Update: You know things aren't going your way when you go out to shoot lightning photography, only to have the southerly flow ahead of the storms push so much smoke into the area you can't see beyond a mile. Another bust. Fun season.

SCM

Slight Risk

2008-06-10T12:49:00.003-04:00

A slight risk box has outlined the Tidewater area as the 5th and hopefully final day of near 100 degree temperatures is set to finally take a break. I'm not feeling well, so any chance of chasing is very remote. Storms are forecast to impact near my area until 22z, so if I do feel better I will head out for some lightning photography. The below image was emailed to me by a good friend who took a flight this morning. Amazing image of the rising towers below!
SCM

Record Breaking Heat!

2008-06-09T08:31:00.004-04:00

Well the spring storm chasing season has quickly been overtaken by a staggering heat wave. There isn't much to say that the temperature in my car Saturday doesn't show you.....

Here is the climatological history

***NORFOLK 100 F+ DEGREE FACTS:
-LONGEST STREAK IS 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
(3 OCCURRENCES MOST RECENTLY JULY 21-23RD 1952).
-MOST 100+ DAYS IN A YEAR IS 5 DAYS (1952 & 1942).
-10 JUNES (OUT OF 135) HAVE RECORDED AT LEAST ONE DAY OF 100+.
-HIGHEST JUNE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS 102 F (JUNE 9TH 1874).
-EARLIEST DATE OF 100 F OCCURRED MAY 31ST 1991.


RECORD HIGHS...MON JUNE 9TH...TUE JUNE 10TH

RIC.............98 (1999)......98 (1964)...
ORF............102 (1874).....101 (1964)...
SBY.............97 (1999)......96 (1964)...
ECG............100 (1952)......99 (1993)...

SCM

More Moderate Risk!

2008-06-04T11:30:00.003-04:00

Can I chase today? NO!!! At least not before 6pm EST.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
 BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
 REGION...S OF STNRY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM CNTRL PA TO NEAR NYC.
 FARTHER S...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ATTM
 EXTENDS FROM N OF CRW ESE TO N OF RIC.  SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT
 MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WV/VA/MD AND DE.
 GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
 RATES...THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG...WITH SLIGHTLY
 GREATER VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

 UPSTREAM...MCV NOW OVER SRN IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT ABOUT 40
 KTS...REACHING NRN WV AROUND 18Z.  COMBINATION OF MCV-INDUCED
 ASCENT...AND UPLIFT ALONG FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER
 TERRAIN...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AS
 HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION LATER TODAY.

 WIND PROFILES WILL FEATURE 40+ KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
 FLOW...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE
 SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
 ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...THE MAIN OVERALL
 ORGANIZATIONAL MODE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
 LINES.  EMBEDDED STORMS COULD YIELD DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS
 A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE MOST OF THE
 ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE/WEAKENS.

 IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF WEAKER
 STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER NRN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
 EARLY THURSDAY.

SCM

Mesoscale Discussion

2008-05-31T12:19:00.001-04:00

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1105 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...VA
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 311605Z - 311700Z
 
  CU FIELD IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND
  WRN VA AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DEEPENS.  SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING
  TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SOUTH OF TORNADO
  WATCH 402 AND IT APPEARS THIS TREND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE EWD
  ADVANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
  SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
  SRN WV/WRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN
  SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL GENERATION/MAINTENANCE WITHIN INCREASINGLY
  BUOYANT AIRMASS.  DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
  MAY BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
 
  ..DARROW.. 05/31/2008
 
 
  ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...
 
  38048035 38427578 37227572 37018058

SCM

Special Statement Just Issued

2008-05-31T11:03:00.000-04:00

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1059 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VAZ048-049-060>100-312100-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-
CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND...
ASHLAND...SOUTH HILL...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...
TAPPAHANNOCK...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...
WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...POQUOSON...FRANKLIN...NEWPORT NEWS...
HAMPTON...CHINCOTEAGUE...WALLOPS ISLAND...MELFA...EASTVILLE
1059 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY. SEVERE
WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY TODAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR
WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD ON THE INTERNET FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

$$

WAMSLEY

Moderate Risk Moved South

2008-05-31T10:52:00.003-04:00

The Moderate Risk box has been moved south over our location. We have a developing storm situation here in the mid-atlantic coast.
Keep an eye on the tropics off the coast of Belize as well!!

SCM

Slight/Moderate Risk Saturday

2008-05-31T07:40:00.001-04:00

Batteries charged and I am on standby for initiation today. I'm hoping for hail.

SCM

Persistent GFS Model....

2008-05-29T08:55:00.005-04:00

Tropical Depression 01 has officially formed in the Eastern Pacific this morning. The GFS Model and others have persistently showed this system moving across central America and into the Caribbean. After it crosses over this area of Central America, the models show this storm cranking up into the first Tropical Storm in the Atlantic. There are many eyes on this thing. Below are the comments from the Wilmington, NC office.

THE GFS HAS BEEN LIKING TROPICAL DEVEL IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. MOST OF US HAVE THOUGHT IT `GOT THE MEMO` ABOUT
HURRICANE SEASON BEGINNING AND THAT IT WAS GETTING AN EARLY START AT
CRANKING OUT ITS SEEMINGLY OBLIGATORY STORM BEYOND DAY 4.
HOWEVER...A CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED (IN THE ERN PACIFIC) AND BEEN
CROWNED TD ONE-E BY THE NHC WITH A FCST TRACK TO THE NNW. IF THIS
SYSTEM SURVIVES THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN IT MAY NOT BE
VERY FAR INTO HURRICANE SEASON BEFORE THE FIRST ATLANTIC TD IS NAMED
AND THE GFS WILL DESERVE A PAY RAISE. AS DISORGANIZED AS ONE-E IS
CURRENTLY THIS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT BUT CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

Here is a view of the GFS Model Run, check out south of Cuba!

One more interesting picture that may forbode a very interesting 2008 Hurricane Season. Everyone remembers the records that were smashed in 2005 for storm activity. Sea Surface Temperatures in 2005 were at record levels and helped fuel some of the strongest hurricanes in recent history. Well, check out this map showing the 2005 vs. 2008 current SST's.

2005 SST's

2008 SST's

Hold onto you seat and make sure you prepare for this years Hurricane season if you are anywhere near the coastline. Here in Virginia we are in the middle of the Hurricane Preparedness Tax Holiday. Take advantage of the tax free status and get your supplies now!

SCM

Tropics Watch...

2008-05-26T14:19:00.004-04:00

We all know Hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin doesn't officially begin until June 1, but we officially have a lot of models hinting at early development. We are officially in watch mode....

SCM

Amazing Live Tornado Footage

2008-05-24T16:43:00.002-04:00

Simply amazing footage that I watched Live on TV this afternoon.

SCM

Wedge Down in Colorado!

2008-05-22T15:10:00.002-04:00

Video of a monster wedge down in Colorado!

SCM

The Chase Video - May 20th, 2008

2008-05-20T23:07:00.001-04:00

SCM

May 20th Severe Storm Photography

2008-05-20T22:17:00.010-04:00

Here are some images from today's severe storms in Norfolk, Va. Video is next.

SCM

Great Storm Line Today....

2008-05-20T17:16:00.002-04:00

A lot of great photographs and wicked lightning on video to come.....

SCM

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect Until 8pm EST

2008-05-20T13:15:00.005-04:00

We are now under a severe thunderstorm watch.....

From the SPC. Hopefully I can track down a supercell ahead of the squall line as it builds. Check back.

SHOWERS ARE DEEPENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA FROM FLOYD COUNTY
TO SMYTH COUNTY WHERE LIGHTNING IS NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE NOW SPREADING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LATEST
DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES SFC-3KM VALUES ARE AOA 7 C/KM...INDICATIVE
OF INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS THIS REGION. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ROBUST AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. GIVEN
THE STRONG WLY VERTICAL SHEAR IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL STORM
MODE MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES....ALTHOUGH BOW-TYPE
ECHOES COULD EVOLVE WHICH WOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2008

SCM

Going Live....

2008-05-20T09:06:00.001-04:00

Testing Out UStream.tv for Potential Chase Video

Broadcast by Ustream.TV

No Storms, But More Awesome Pictures

2008-05-19T08:57:00.005-04:00

Well the storm potential yesterday never came together. With dewpoints in the lower 50's all day, I just wasn't feeling it. We did get a nice squall line of rain that tested my new gutters. No more major ponding of water in the backyard! Storm potential is back tomorrow, but looks like nothing severe. I sure hope we get some more cells to photograph before the haze of summer gets here and shuts down any good chance of storm pictures.

I had to share these photos of a major waterspout off the coast of Delaware on April 20th. What a monster! The entire Chesapeake Bay was under a tornado watch that day. I was on standby, but nothing happened here in southeast Virginia. Enjoy!

SCM

Slight Risk Sunday

2008-05-18T09:04:00.003-04:00

Goal for the day, find some hail.

SCM

The Clouds

2008-05-15T09:34:00.003-04:00

Here is an HDR Image I captured on my tripod during the storm on Monday.

SCM

VNOR147

2008-05-15T08:56:00.006-04:00

Last night I attended the Wakefield Skywarn Basic Spotter Training class and received my spotter ID. I am now Spotter ID, VNOR147 here in the Wakefield territory. Thanks again to Dewdrop for motivating me to take this class. When they say "Basic" spotter training, they mean it. It was very elementary, but good for a majority of people in attendance. There were 34 people at the class, many of whom were motivated by the EF3 Suffolk Tornado. It was a good mix of people with a number of first responders, full time fisherman, and actually 3 students in the 7th grade or lower. It was very clear from the beginning of the class they were not big fans of "storm chasers". By the time they got to me for an introduction, I mentioned no words of my chasing adventures. My comments were basically, "Hi, I'm Mike and I like the weather". I think the politically correct way to ID myself from now on will be as a "mobile spotter".

There were 3 meteorologist from the Wakefield office at the class. I did get a chance to talk to them about the post Tornado review in Suffolk. Under the old Fujita scale, it was definitely an EF4 tornado. However, under the enhanced fujita scale they categorized the tornado as a strong EF3. The only mitigating factor from making the Tornado an EF4 was the fact that absolutely none of the houses that were wiped off their foundation had any tie downs or rebarb connecting the frame to the cement slab. I found this to be shocking. These people have probably paid over 300K for brand new construction that is basically 2x4's laying on top of cement with no anchor into the slab they lay upon. Pretty amazing. I sure am glad I live in a full brick 1935 house made of heavy white oak beams. They don't make them like the used to!

On a side note, I am on the road for work tomorrow and we are close to the slight risk box. I hope to be on the road heading south from DC by the time the storms initiate. I'll have my camera and EVDO card with me. There is also a chance of some storms tonight after dark. I would love to get my first lightning photography in for the year this evening.

SCM

Burma Again...

2008-05-14T09:05:00.002-04:00

I have not posted anything so far about the devastating typhoon that wreaked havoc on the poor people of Burma. This morning I was browsing the weather news only to see another significant storm developing off their coast and set to hit the region. This is a very sad situation. I'm sure the US Military ships will soon need to head for safety and leave the region. Pray for the poor people in Burma. A military government that refuses to distribute aid and now a second typoon is more than any population should have to suffer through. This situation is set to get far worse than it already is.

Tonight is my first basic spotter class in Chesapeake. I have already gone through the presentation, so I am prepared for the class. I'll report back tomorrow after the training.

SCM

High Winds and Flooding - The Video

2008-05-12T21:08:00.004-04:00

Here are some scenes from around the Norfolk, Va area during the Coastal Flood Warning and High Wind Warning that took place today. A major flood event is forecast for 4am on Tuesday morning, which we will cover. The high pressure from the west has started to move in this evening. This has increased the pressure gradient and winds are really cranking up. With these Northerly winds pushing water down the Chesapeake Bay towards the Norfolk coast, major flooding is ahead at high tide.

SCM

Flooding Round 1 in Progress...

2008-05-12T15:44:00.008-04:00

Here are some images from the storm taking place here in Southeastern Virginia. The first high tide with flooding is peaking out at 4:15pm EST today at Sewells Point. I have great video of the storm that I will put together later.

SCM

High Wind Warning Issued

2008-05-12T11:27:00.003-04:00

The weather is set to get interesting after 3pm today. The Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning with gusts to over 60mph expected after 3pm today. I'll cover this as much as possible with video today and tonight. Severe flooding is also expected with tides running as much as 6.5 feet above normal. Norfolk will see severe flooding if this takes place.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

MDZ024-025-NCZ102-VAZ095-098>100-122230-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WI.Y.0004.080512T2100Z-080513T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.HW.W.0002.080512T1900Z-080513T0800Z/
INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY...COROLLA...
CHINCOTEAGUE...WALLOPS ISLAND...MELFA...EASTVILLE
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MARYLAND...
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN 2.5 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOLLOWING ARE
THE TIMES AND FORECASTED LEVELS OF HIGH TIDES...WITH THE TIDE
LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

LOCATION          TIME OF HIGH TIDE      EXPECTED HEIGHT

SEWELLS POINT     447 AM TUESDAY         6.5 FT
                  518 PM TUESDAY         6.0 FT


$$

SCM

Wind and Flooding

2008-05-12T09:53:00.003-04:00

The Low Pressure system that created so much severe weather this Mother's Day weekend is set to move off the Delmarva Coast today and strengthen. As a result, we are looking at some strong winds coming out of the NNE. This is the perfect setup for the lower Chesapeake Bay to take on some pretty severe flooding. I'll be heading out around high tide at 5pm today to see how bad it is. The worst flooding is forecast for tomorrow. We are under a wind advisory starting at 5pm today. Winds over 45mph sustained are forecast. Are we in tropical storm season already, geez!

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

MDZ024-025-NCZ015>017-102-VAZ095-097>100-122100-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WI.Y.0004.080512T2100Z-080513T0900Z/
INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY...
ELIZABETH CITY...COROLLA...CHINCOTEAGUE...WALLOPS ISLAND...
MELFA...EASTVILLE
408 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
EDT TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE WINDS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...AND MAY CAUSE MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.

$$

MCNATT

SCM

Bow Echo At Home

2008-05-11T20:50:00.011-04:00

So I started heading south towards a tornadic cell that dropped a confirmed tornado off 158 at the Currituck Airport. The rain was so heavy that I was never going to make it there in time after a Mother's Day cookout. I turned back around and decided to settle for a bow echo segment that moved over the house around 7:40pm EST as a warned severe storm. I shot a short 4 minute video of the storm as the shelf cloud moved over and the winds hit. Pretty cool, but not what I was after today. It goes from pretty light to complete darkness in about 2 minutes as the shelf cloud moves over.

The threat is going to continue overnight as a new Mesoscale Discussion was just issued stating that a new round of severe storms could come through in the next 3 hours. Central NC has seen new activity blow up this evening, I'll be watching these closely. The current torando watch is in effect until 11pm, but most activity is off shore now.

SCM

Tornado Warned Cells

2008-05-11T18:21:00.001-04:00

I'm going to head to South Chesapeake to intercept...

SCM

New Tornado Watch, Incoming Bow Echo Segment

2008-05-11T17:19:00.002-04:00

SCM

Tornado Watch Issued

2008-05-11T14:13:00.007-04:00

The warm front is quickly moving north and if it can drape across the NC/Va state line, then we could be in business. Low pressure is setup to move along the front and give us the lift we need for a big event this evening. It is quickly warming up and dew points are rising outside. My batteries are charged. Anything that takes place after 5pm, I'll be all over it.

SCM

Meso Discussion Open Up Possibilities This Evening...

2008-05-11T14:03:00.001-04:00

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...THE CAROLINAS INTO SRN VA
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 111739Z - 111945Z
 
  SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
 
  SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
  OF NORTH CAROLINA.  AND...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A DEEPENING LOW
  CENTER WILL TRACK FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
  RALEIGH BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z...AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 90-100 KT 500
  MB JET STREAK NOSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD
  SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
 
  IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE BOUNDARY
  LAYER INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
  NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.  BUT...THIS MAY CHANGE
  RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS
  NORTHWARD...EAST NORTHEAST OF SURFACE CYCLONE.  BREAKS IN CLOUD
  COVER ARE ALREADY ALLOWING INCREASING INSOLATION ACROSS THIS
  REGION...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
  THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
  1000-2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE.
 
  DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
   SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED SEVERE
   THREAT COULD INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER  AS EARLY AS THE
   18-20Z TIME FRAME.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG AND STRENGTHENING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. 
   AND...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE
   CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/11/2008
 
 
  ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
 
  34858128 35588038 36507933 37267887 37247742 37037675
  36067623 35027652 33707857 33658093